Middle East tensions force Australia to choose: electrostate or petrostate, as Tim Buckley says China’s electrostate dominance shows it is already winning the global energy war

As fighting in the Middle East continues to play havoc with global energy markets, Australia faces a stark choice about its energy future: move rapidly to becoming an electrostate dominated by home-generated, affordable and plentiful renewable energy and battery storage, or cling to exporting and importing coal, oil and gas.

Australia’s Energy Vulnerability Comes Into Focus

As one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and gas primarily to Asia where countries are actively working to reduce imported energy, Australia itself remains heavily dependent on imports of refined fuels like petrol. This makes us acutely vulnerable to the supply disruptions we are seeing due to the Middle East conflict.

Our energy vulnerability has long been masked by distance, luck and relatively stable global markets. But as oil prices surge and shipping risks grow, our exposure is harder to ignore. Australia holds comparatively small fuel reserves, lacks refining capacity and remains highly dependent on oil for transport and industry.

In effect, Australia has built prosperity on exporting energy supplies it increasingly cannot rely on at home.

The question now confronting Australia is not simply whether we can weather the current crisis, but what kind of energy power we intend to be. With abundant and affordable solar and wind power and the global advantage of rapid uptake of both home and industrial scale batteries, we are well placed to benefit from the move to home-generated renewables, with the energy and national security benefits that shift brings.

China’s Long‑Term Energy Advantage

Meanwhile Climate Energy Finance expert Tim Buckley tells Fran Kelly in his interview with the ABC that China is standing apart from the turmoil, shielded by years of deliberate energy transition planning. Its oil supply remains largely uninterrupted, its economy buffered by scale, stockpiles and electrification, and its diplomatic posture burnished by an ability to appear steady while others react.

China’s position in the current crisis is not the result of last-minute manoeuvring, but of long-term preparation according to Buckley. Over two decades, Beijing has pursued a strategy that treats energy not merely as a commodity, but as a pillar of national security.

China has diversified oil supply routes, built vast strategic petroleum reserves and continued purchasing Iranian crude even under sanctions, insulating itself from sudden price swings. At the same time, it has invested aggressively in clean energy and electrification, reducing the share of oil in its domestic economy. Today, it dominates global supply chains for batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels and wind technology.

The result is resilience. As shipping lanes and markets react nervously to escalation near the Strait of Hormuz, China’s economic exposure is significantly lower than that of many Western nations. It burns less oil per unit of growth, relies less on imported refined fuels, and increasingly electrifies transport and industry.

This has also given Beijing diplomatic and market leverage. While it has avoided direct military involvement, it has also positioned itself as a stable power — benefiting strategically from conflict without paying its costs. Meanwhile, Trump’s war and shift from Biden’s focus on rapidly developing renewable energy and battery storage sees the US losing its energy and diplomatic primacy.

The Choice Australia Can No Longer Delay

Moments of global disruption often clarify long-term choices. The oil shocks of the 1970s reshaped economies and policies for decades. The conflict now unfolding in the Middle East may do the same — but with a different outcome.

China’s strength lies not in avoiding crisis, but in preparing for it. Australia’s vulnerability lies not in scarcity, but in delay. Policy inconsistency, the influence of vested fossil fuel interests on its political parties and a perceived economic reliance on fossil exports have slowed electrification, particularly in transport. The longer we remain tied to a fuel export model that others are leaving behind, the harder the transition becomes.

The lesson of the current crisis is clear: energy independence in the 21st Century is less about what lies beneath the ground than what can be generated, stored and transmitted at home as China has shown the world.

Listen to Tim Buckley's interview with the ABC here.